We consider an homogeneous class of assets, whose returns are driven by an unobservablefactor. We derive approximated prediction and pricing formulas for the future factorvalues and their proxies, when the size n of the class is large. Up to order 1=n, these approximationsinvolve solely...

This paper addresses the issue of intergenerational and internationalsharing of longevity and growth risks. Current research on worldwidedemographic changes highlights the importance of longevity risk on financialmarkets and the need to devise optimal hedging vehicles. We present a...

This paper deals with asymptotically efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamicpanel models with common unobservable factor. These models are especially relevantfor applications to large portfolios of credits, corporate bonds, or life insurance contracts, andare recommended in the...

The recursive prediction and filtering formulas of the Kalman filter are difficult to implementin nonlinear state space models. For Gaussian linear state space models, or for models with qualitativestate variables, the recursive formulas of the filter require the updating of a finite number...

This paper develops a dynamic trade-off model of optimal capital structure that takes intoaccount the fact that most firms have both invested assets and growth opportunities. Thesetwo sources of value react quite differently to business cycle risk. In particular, growth optionsare more sensitive...

A credit risk model for determining aggregated portfolio losses is suggested.Beside the common macrostructural dependencies between assetand recovery value, we incorporate possible inter-rm relations among theobligors of the portfolio. Through this channel we also establish relateddefault...

We study how the interaction of agents with different beliefs about a firm’s future cash flows determines the jointbehavior of credit spreads, option implied volatilities, and stock returns. Beliefs heterogeneity influences the pricing kernelin a way that supports more realistic credit spreads...

This paper provides, and empirically estimates, a model of sovereign default risk on external debt,in which the sovereign endogenously determines the timing of defaulting. The paper o¤ers theoreticalpredictions of the relationship between credit spreads and related macro-variables that are...

A standard repurchase agreement between two counterpartiesis considered to examine the endogenous choice of collateral, the feasibilityof secured lending, and welfare implications of the central bank’s collateralframework. As an important innovation, we allow for two-sided counterpartyrisk. In...

It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationshipbetween the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. Thiscould be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neitherof which seems plausible. Instead we argue that large...