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Exchange Rates and Fundamentals : Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?

Akdogan, Kurmas; Aksoy, Yunus - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2007

We examine the out-of-sample predictive power of real time linear monetary models with possible nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors for the GBP/USD exchange rates. Real time revisions of U.K. and U.S. monetary aggregates and output are significant; therefore the use of final data on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005667279

Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence From Turkey

Ozdemir, K. Azim; Yigit, Serkan - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2009

This paper examines the constraints on the dynamics of the daily US dollar and the Euro exchange rates relative to the Turkish lira after the full fledged Inflation Targeting regime was adopted in 2006. We find that the single threshold specifications with two regimes that allow the conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005792693

Reserve Option Mechanism as a Stabilizing Policy Tool : Evidence from Exchange Rate Expectations

Degerli, Ahmet; Fendoglu, Salih - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2013

suggest that, after the introduction the ROM (i) market expectations are leaned towards a significantly lower volatility or … external factors, the USD/TL expectations have exhibited lower levels of volatility, skewness and kurtosis; (iii) the higher … on exchange rate expectations. Last, we provide evidence that the mechanism acts as an automatic stabilizer of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941476

Alternative Tools to Manage Capital Flow Volatility

Alper, Koray; Kara, Hakan; Yorukoglu, Mehmet - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2013

Heightened volatility in cross-border capital flows has increased exchange rate volatility across emerging markets as well as in advanced economies, setting the stage for more active management of currencies. Traditionally, foreign exchange rate intervention has been the primary tool to address...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941481

Inattentive Consumers and Exchange Rate Volatility

Ekinci, M. Fatih - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2013

We present and study the properties of a sticky information exchange rate model where consumers and producers update their information sets infrequently. We find that introducing inattentive consumers has important implications. Through a mechanism resembling the limited participation models, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941491

Credit Growth, Current Account and Financial Depth

Ekinci, M. Fatih; Erdem, F. Pinar; Kilinc, Zübeyir - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2014

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analyzed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941498

Sektorel Reel Efektif Doviz Kurlari : Turkiye Uygulamasi

Saygili, Hulya; Yilmaz, Gokhan; Filazioglu, Sibel; … - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2012

Bu calismanin amaci Turk Imalat Sanayine ait sektorel reel efektif doviz kuru (REK) endekslerini olusturmaktir. Sektorlere ozgu rekabet ve dis ticaret ortaklarinin farklilastigi dusunuldugunde, sektorel endekslerin imalat sanayi butunu icin hesaplanan endekslerden farkli bir seyir izleyerek,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941503

Rezerv Opsiyonu Mekanizmasi ve Optimal Rezerv Opsiyonu Katsayilarinin Hesaplanmasi

Kucuksarac, Doruk; Ozel, Ozgur - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2012

Rezerv opsiyonu mekanizmasi son dönemde TCMB tarafindan aktif bir politika araci olarak kullanilmaktadir. Rezerv opsiyonu mekanizmasi ile Turk lirasinin oynakligi dusurulebilir ve kredilerin sermaye hareketlerine duyarliligi azaltilabilir. Ayrica rezerv opsiyonu kredi buyumesi uzerinde de TCMB...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941510

End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey

Ekinci, M. Fatih; Kabas, Gazi; Sunel, Enes - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2013

Estimating a robust and stable trend is an important challenge for economic analysis. We compare alternative approaches by estimating the cyclical component for the real exchange rate series of Turkey. Comparison criteria is the sensitivity of the estimated cycle to additional data points. A...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941519

Turk Imalat Sanayi Sektorel Reel Efektif Doviz Kuru Endeksleri Uzerine Bir Degerlendirme

Saygili, Hulya; Yilmaz, Gokhan - Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası - 2012

Sektorlere ozgu rekabet ve dis ticaret ortaklarinin farklilastigi dusunuldugunde, sektorel reel kur endekslerinin imalat sanayi butunu icin hesaplanan endekslerden farkli bir seyir izleyerek, sektorel rekabet gucu gelismelerinin anlasilmasinda daha bilgilendirici olmasi beklenmektedir. Bu...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010941530