In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such...

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onwards when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

The Mongolian economy has grown very rapidly following the discovery of significant mineral deposits. Large investments in the mining sector have led to increased capital inflows, resulting in cheap external funding for banks and rapid credit expansion. Loans to households increased at the...

In 2010, over 92 percent of the assets in the Nicaraguan financial system were concentrated in the banking sector, while microfinance managed over 5 percent, and all the remaining segments covered less than 3 percent. Starting in the late 1990s and until 2007, the microfinance sector in...