In the immediate wake of the Great Recession we didn't see the disinflation that most models predicted and, subsequently, we didn't see the inflation they predicted. We show that these puzzles disappear in a Vector Autoregressive model that properly accounts for domestic and global factors. Such...

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onwards when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail...

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density forecasts from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We exploit the panel dimension in this dataset to examine whether this distribution became less stable following the Great...

The Mongolian economy has grown very rapidly following the discovery of significant mineral deposits. Large investments in the mining sector have led to increased capital inflows, resulting in cheap external funding for banks and rapid credit expansion. Loans to households increased at the...

Eight years of strong economic growth in Ukraine in 2000-2008, at an average of seven percent per year, ended with a sharp 15 percent decline in 2009. The national currency plummeted and the banking sector nearly collapsed, with non-performing loans increasing from 2.3 percent to 11.2 percent of...

Eight years of strong economic growth in Ukraine in 2000-2008, at an average of seven percent per year, ended with a sharp 15 percent decline in 2009. The national currency plummeted and the banking sector nearly collapsed, with non-performing loans increasing from 2.3 percent to 11.2 percent of...

Although the Parliament of Rwanda has passed an impressive array of financial sector laws since 2008, the laws relevant to financial consumer protection are very limited and in some cases overlapping. Consumer protection in Rwandan banking, microfinance, and insurance sectors is fragmented...

The review provides a detailed assessment of the institutional policy and regulatory framework in two segments of the financial sector: banking and non-bank credit institutions. The mission took place in response to a specific request for technical assistance in the field of financial consumer...

This diagnostic study exclusively covers consumer protection and financial literacy issues in the banking sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Household credit in BiH more than tripled in volume in 2003-2008, and in terms of GDP it expanded from 13 to 26 percent. Foreign currency loans...