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Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators

Ozyildirim, Ataman; Schaitkin, Brian; Zarnowitz, Victor - The Conference Board - 2008

Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date Euro Area recessions and … recoveries in the past several decades. In the U.S. and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI …) are used to date classical business cycle turning points; also indexes of leading indicators (LEI) are used to help in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004990909

The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely

McGuckin, Robert H.; Ozyildirim, Ataman; Zarnowitz, Victor - The Conference Board - 2000

A major shortcoming of the U.S. leading index is that it does not use the most recent information for stock prices and yield spreads. The index methodology ignores these data in favor of a time-consistent set of components (i.e., all of the components must refer to the previous month). An...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004992994

A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators

McGuckin, Robert H.; Ozyildirim, Ataman; Zarnowitz, Victor - The Conference Board - 2003

Effectively predicting cyclical movements in the economy is a major challenge. While there are other approaches to forecasting, the U.S. leading index has long been used to analyze and predict economic fluctuations. We describe and test a new procedure for making the index more timely. The new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004992995

Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles

Zarnowitz, Victor; Ozyildirim, Ataman - The Conference Board - 2001

A study of business cycles defined as sequences of expansions and contractions in the level of general economic activity does not require trend estimation and elimination, but a study of growth cycles defined as sequences of high and low growth phases does. Major cyclical slowdowns and booms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968047

Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?

McGuckin, Robert H.; Ozyildirim, Ataman - The Conference Board - 2003

This paper reports real-time out-of-sample tests of the ability of the U.S. Index Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005001412