Abstract: Banking crises involve periods of persistently low credit and economic growth. Banks’ balance sheets are then weak but so are those of non-financial corporate borrowers. Hence, a crucial question is whether credit growth is low due to supply or to demand factors. However convincing...

Two model averaging approaches are used and compared in estimating and forecasting dynamic factor models, the well-known BMA and the recently developed WALS. Both methods propose to combine frequentist estimators using Bayesian weights. We apply our framework to the Armenian economy using...

Opting for structural or reduced form estimation is often hard to justify if one wants to both learn about the structure of the economy and obtain accurate predictions. In this paper, we show that using both structural and reduced form estimates simultaneously can lead to more accurate policy...

We study the bond yield conundrum in a macro-finance framework. Building upon a exible and non-structural macro-finance model, we test the hypothesis that the bond yield conundrum is connected to various sources of uncertainty in the financial markets. Moreover we explicitly test for the role of...

This paper constructs a macro-finance model with two types of borrowers: entrepreneurs who engage in productive activities and gamblers who play in lotteries. It links a central bank's interest rate policy to expected cash ows of both types of borrowers. Via this link we study how the...

Abstract: Central banks in fluence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. By providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks affect financial markets' forecasts. In bad times monetary policy...

Abstract: Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary policy innovations account for more than 30 percent of U.S. output variation. The dynamic effects, however, depend on the type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks...

A major lesson of the recent financial crisis is that the interbank lending market is crucial for banks facing large uncertainty regarding their liquidity needs. This paper studies the efficiency of the interbank lending market in allocating funds. We consider two different types of liquidity...

Abstract: Initially, voting rights were limited to wealthy elites providing political support for stock markets. The franchise expansion induces the median voter to provide political support for banking development as this new electorate has lower financial holdings and benefits less from the...