This paper critically evaluates the policy literature surrounding China's exchange rate regime.It first discusses several popularly raised contentions in relation to the dollar peg employed by China, which in fact are poorly grounded in evidence.These include notions that the RMB is clearly...

This paper analyzes a dynamic exchange rate policy game in which the central bank has private information about its short-term exchange rate target, on the one hand, and in which the market is faced with a certain degree of ambiguity concerning the actual intervention volume, on the other....

Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our...

Most economists intuitively consider purchasing power parity (PPP) to be true. Nevertheless, quite surprisingly, the empirical literature is not very supportive for PPP. In this paper, however, we find evidence in favor of PPP using a new test. The test is embedded in a Markov regime-switching...

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel...

The question whether exchange rate risk a¤ects trade has received considerable attention in the literature. However, the conclusions are still mixed. This paper analyzes why it is so difficult to obtain a clear answer from time series analyses. We use data on bilateral aggregate US exports to...

This paper is concerned with issues of model specification, identification, and estimation in exchange rate models with unobservable fundamentals.We show that the model estimated by Gardeazabal, Reg´ulez and V´azquez (International Economic Review, 1997) is not identified and demonstrate how...

The paper empirically investigates the determinants of currency invoicing in Dutch goods trade with OECD countries. To this end, a currency-share systems approach is employed, which is applied to quarterly panel data for 1987–1998. One of the key findings is that a country’s share of...

We analyze the time-dependence of exchange rate correlations using a new multivariate GARCH model. This model consists of two parts. First, we transform the exchange rate changes into their principal components and specify univariate GARCH models for all components. Second, we use the inverse of...