This paper analyzes some pros and cons of a monetary union for the ASEAN1 countries, excluding Myanmar. We estimate a stylized open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model for the ASEAN countries. Using the framework of linear quadratic differential games, we contrast the potential gains or...

We establish several stylized facts about the behavior of individual uncertainty and disagreement between individuals when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. Subjects correctly perceive the underlying inflation uncertainty in only 60% of cases, which can be interpreted as the...

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous...

Abstract: This paper compares the behavior of subjects' uncertainty in different monetary policy environments when forecasting inflation in the laboratory. We find that inflation targeting produces lower uncertainty and higher accuracy of interval forecasts than inflation forecast targeting. We...

Cognitive dissonance causes people to rationalize actions that differ from their own preferences.Conformity, on the other hand, causes people to change their behavior as a result of pressure from others.This paper investigates the consequences of preference dynamic that occur when individuals...

In this paper we estimate ideal points of Bank Presidents and Board Governors at the FOMC. We use stated preferences from FOMC transcripts and estimate a hierarchical spatial voting model. We find a clear difference between the average Board Governor and Bank President. We find little evidence...

Abstract: Central banks in fluence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. By providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks affect financial markets' forecasts. In bad times monetary policy...

This paper proposes a conceptual framework to investigate the effects of central bank independence, of the degree of centralization of wage bargaining and of the interaction between those institutional variables, on real wages, unemployment and inflation, in a framework in which unions are...

This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in...