In Hens (1997), a new adjustment process is proposed for a setting with reopening spot and asset markets. He argues by means of an intemporal variant of Scarf's example that this process is more stable than the other processes, although in general it might be more stable or less stable. This...

Abstract: This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents produce heterogeneous expectations due to model uncertainty, informational frictions and different capacities for processing information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this...

The “gambler’s fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler’s fallacy using data from the...

Abstract: This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so, we test the epidemiological foundations of the sticky information model (Carroll, 2003, 2006). We use both aggregate and household-level data from the Survey Research...

Why is labour mobility in the European Union so low? To shed light on this issue we focus and examine international labour migration intentions of the Dutch potential labour force. A key characteristic of intended labour migration of the Dutch is that its low level and the fact that it is...

We specify and estimate an econometric model which separately identifies distributional preferences and the effects of perceived intentions on responder behavior in the ultimatum game. We allow the effects of perceived intentions to depend, among other things, on the subjective probabilities...

This paper analyses the eeffects of ageing and child support in a model with endogenous fertility and Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) pensions. First, we show that the endogeneity of fertility makes society vulnerable to both pessimistic beliefs and changes in life expectancy. In particular, we show that...

We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto...

The growing literature on precautionary saving clearly indicates the need for measurement of income uncertainty. In this paper we empirically analyze subjective income uncertainty in the Netherlands. Data come from the Dutch VSB panel. We measure income uncertainty directly by asking questions...