Showing 1 - 10 of 184
The “gambler’s fallacy” is the false belief that a random event is less likely to occur if the event has occurred recently. Such beliefs are false if the onset of events is in fact independent of previous events. We study gender differences in the gambler’s fallacy using data from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090580
We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091239
comparative analysis of risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. The perception of ambiguity is described by a hidden Markovian … premium and risk free rate and can generate asset-price stylized facts like a procyclical price-dividend ratio and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090768
considered before all use nonparametric statistics.On the technical side, we provide a novel approach to the pre-estimation … problem using Le Cam s third lemma.The resulting formula for the correction in the limiting variance as a result of pre-estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011092694
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090535
What s the asymptotic null distribution of a rank-based serial autocorrelation test applied to residuals of an estimated GARCH model?What s the limiting distribution of estimated ACD parameters applied to the residuals of some first-stage modelling procedure?This paper addresses the often...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091906
We present a definition of increasing uncertainty, independent of any notion of subjective probabilities, or of any particular model of preferences.Our notion of an elementary increase in the uncertainty of any act corresponds to the addition of an 'elementary bet' which increases consumption by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090841
This paper generalizes the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty by allowing for risk averse investors in … the absence of com-plete markets.Until now this theory has only been developed in the cases of risk neutrality, or risk … price that distinguishes price regions in which it is optimal for a risk averse investor to invest and price regions in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091407
robustness through risk analysis, which uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to estimate the probabilities of specific system … systems, namely Kanban, Conwip, Hybrid, and Generic. In this example, Hybrid turns out to be best. However, when risk is … ignored, then Generic is best; so risk considerations do make a difference! The methodology can be easily applied to any …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011091481
Risk premia in the consumption capital asset pricing model depend on preferences and dividend. We develop a … decomposition which allows a separate treatment of both components. We show that preferences alone determine the risk …-return tradeoff measured by the Sharpe-ratio. In general, the risk-return trade-off implied by preferences depends on the elasticity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011090587