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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment

Abbring, Jaap H.; Berg, Gerard J. van den; Ours, Jan C. van - Tinbergen Institute - 1997

In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136894

Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals

Koopman, Siem Jan; Kraeussl, Roman; Lucas, Andre; … - Tinbergen Institute - 2006

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980—2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136965

Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André - Tinbergen Institute - 2003

Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains empirical ambiguity, however, as to whether or these cycles coincide. Recent papers suggest by their empirical research set-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit spreads...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137144

Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk

Lucas, André; Dijk, Ronald van; Kloek, Teun - Tinbergen Institute - 2001

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281862

Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death

Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; Berg, Gerard J. … - Tinbergen Institute - 2003

a recession to those born in the preceding boom, and we estimate duration models where the individual's mortality rate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137379

Agglomeration Externalities and Localized Employment Growth

Vor, Friso de; Groot, Henri L.F. de - Tinbergen Institute - 2008

between agglomeration externalities (specialization, diversity, and competition), accessibilty measures and the employment … growth of a particular industry on a particular site. We use data on employment growth of site-industries on 68 formal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144500

The Relationship between Firm Births and Job Creation

Stel, André van; Storey, David - Tinbergen Institute - 2002

employment growth has previously been examined either with no time-lag or with only a short period lag. The current paper … find that the short-run employment impact of new-firm startups in British regions has been bigger in the 1990s compared to … the 1980s. Concerning long-run effects, we find that the employment impact of new-firm startups is strongest after about …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137180

Horizontal Multinational Firms, Vertical Multinational Firms and Domestic Investment

Namini, Julian Emami; Pennings, Enrico - Tinbergen Institute - 2009

We build a dynamic general equilibrium model with 2 countries, horizontal and vertical multinational activity and endogenous domestic and foreign investment. It is found that horizontal multinational activity always leads to a complementary relationship between domestic and foreign investment....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136938

Basic Exchange Rate Theories

Marrewijk, Charles van - Tinbergen Institute - 2005

This four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144534

Large Swings in Currencies driven by Fundamentals

Cumperayot, Phornchanok; Vries, Casper G. de - Tinbergen Institute - 2006

Exchange rate returns are fat-tailed distributed. We provide evidence that the apparent non-normality derives from the behavior of macroeconomic fundamentals. Economic and probabilistic arguments are offered for such a relationship. Empirical support is given by testing against normality and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144551