Banachewicz, Konrad; Vaart, Aad van der; Lucas, André - Tinbergen Institute - 2006
We extend the Hidden Markov Model for defaults of Crowder, Davis, and Giampieri (2005) to include covariates. The covariates enhance the prediction of transition probabilities from high to low default regimes. To estimate the model, we extend the EM estimating equations to account for the time...
