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We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838634
This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137026
forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137361
We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137376
wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504905
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment for the estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM model incorporates the unobserved volatility as an explanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281817
daily squared returns and intradaily squared returns for forecasting horizons ranging from 1 to 10 days. For the daily …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281987
explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016264
Knowledge triggers regional growth. Evidence suggests that skilled labour force concentrates in islands of innovation, determining an advantage for innovative regions and a challenge for lagging ones. We address the role of knowledge in shaping effective markets for skilled labour. Estimates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009201131
In the media role models are increasingly being acknowledged as an influential factor in explaining the reasons for the choice of occupation and career. Various conceptual studies have proposed links between role models and entrepreneurial intentions. However, empirical research aimed at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008921780