U.S. trading in non-U.S. stocks has grown dramatically. Round-the-clock, these stocks trade in the home market, in the U.S. market and, potentially, in both markets simultaneously. We use a state space model to study 24-hour price discovery. As opposed to the standard "variance ratio'' approach,...

This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...

This model of policy evaluation has been developed to identify factors that cause policy outcomes to diverge from the intended results. In this model the explanatory factors may be inherent to the conceptual and institutional framework to which policy makers adhere, or they may be ‘real...

Most stock exchange regulators around the world reacted to the 2007-2009 crisis by

This note clarifies the relation between two competing definitions of the contribution to price discovery in market microstructure models: (i) the information share and (ii) the common factor component weight. It is demonstrated that the two measures are closely related, but that only the...

Most of the available monthly interest data series consist of monthly averages of daily observations. It is well- known that this averaging introduces spurious autocorrelation effects in the first differences of the series. It is exactly this differenced series we are interested in when...

This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the A rated journal 'Journal of Business and Economic Statistics'.<p>

We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...