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Ageing and the Relative Price of Nontradeables

Bettendorf, Leon; Dewachter, Hans - Tinbergen Institute - 2007

In this paper we identify the effects of ageing on the relative price of nontradeables versus tradeables. We consider two cases. In a first specification, age effects only account for short-run dynamics. An alternative case allows for permanent age effects. Estimating the respective cases by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137105

Individual Mortality and Macro-Economic Conditions from Birth to Death

Lindeboom, Maarten; Portrait, France; Berg, Gerard J. … - Tinbergen Institute - 2003

We analyze the effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rate later in life, using business cycle conditions early in life as an exogenous indicator. Individual records from Dutch registers of birth, marriage, and death, covering a window of unprecedented size...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137379

Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?

Dalen, Hendrik P. van - Tinbergen Institute - 2007

How does global aging affect the convergence in global economic development? Both the developing and developed world will be characterized for the coming decades by aging populations. Changes in the age distribution of a population are an important determinant of economic performance as they...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144475

Do Early Life and Contemporaneous Macro-conditions explain Health at Older Ages?

Portrait, France; Alessie, Rob; Deeg, Dorly - Tinbergen Institute

The paper presents an approach which thoroughly assesses the role of early life and contemporaneous macro-conditions in explaining health at older ages. In particular, we investigate the role of exposure to infectious diseases and economic conditions during infancy and childhood, as well as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144573

The Health Penalty of China's Rapid Urbanization

Poel, E. Van de; O'Donnell, O.; Doorslaer, E. Van - Tinbergen Institute - 2009

Rapid urbanization could have positive and negative health effects, such that the net impact on population health is … China’s unprecedented urbanization. We construct an index of urbanicity from a broad set of community characteristics and … define urbanization in terms of movements across the distribution of this index. We use difference-in-differences estimators …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137276

Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information

Pooter, Michiel D. de; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Institute - 2007

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504892

Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions

Cakmakli, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Institute - 2011

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369369

Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates using the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model with Time-Varying Parameters

Koopman, Siem Jan; Mallee, Max I.P.; Wel, Michel van der - Tinbergen Institute - 2007

This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the A rated journal 'Journal of Business and Economic Statistics'.<p>

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016262

Forecasting Productivity Using Information from Firm-Level Data

Bartelsman, Eric J.; Wolf, Zoltán - Tinbergen Institute - 2009

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016264

Dynamic Factor Models with Smooth Loadings for Analyzing the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Jungbacker, Borus; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der - Tinbergen Institute

We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016268