This paper investigates the international spillovers of government debt and the associated risk of inflation within a monetary union when countries have different pension systems. I use a stochastic two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where one country has PAYG pensions and the...

Several lessons learned from a Bayesian analysis of basic economic time series models by means of the Gibbs sampling algorithm are presented. Models include the Cochrane-Orcutt model for serial correlation, the Koyck distributed lag model, the Unit Root model, the Instrumental Variables model...

Highly non-elliptical posterior distributions may occur in several econometric models, in particular, when the likelihood information is allowed to dominate and data information is weak. We explain the issue of highly non-elliptical posteriors in a model for the effect of education on income...

Misspecifications and differences in operational definitions of elasticities in primary studies carry over to meta-analysis results. We show that the current practice of accounting for such primary study aber-rations in a meta-analysis by means of dummy variables goes a long way in mitigating...

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

Important choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation methods are studied for the case of highly non-elliptical posterior distributions. We focus on the situation where one makes use of importance sampling or the independence chain...

The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data of the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and Bayesian analysis in order to analyze to what degree violations of the strong validity assumption affect the...

In this paper we use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the impact of effect size heterogeneity on the results of a meta-analysis. Specifically, we address the small sample behaviour of the OLS, the fixed effects regression and the mixed effects meta-estimators under three alternative...

We consider likelihood inference and state estimation by means of importance sampling for state space models with a nonlinear non-Gaussian observation y ~ p(y|alpha) and a linear Gaussian state alpha ~ p(alpha). The importance density is chosen to be the Laplace approximation of the smoothing...

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, and its associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision on potential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of either difference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...