Showing 1 - 10 of 25
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838634
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment for the estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean … (SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM model incorporates the unobserved volatility as an explanatory … variable in the mean equation. The same extension is developed elsewhere for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281817
. At the same time, there is discussion regarding the robustness of the results of empirical growth studies. In a seminal … paper, Knack and Keefer (1997) assess the effect of trust on growth. This paper analyses the robustness of their results … along several dimensions, acknowledging the complexity of therobustness concept. Our findings show that the robustness of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136946
The empirical economic growth literature is criticized for its lack of robustness. For different definitions of … robustness, conclusions vary from 'almost every correlation is fragile' to 'a substantial number of explanatory variables are … robustness using quasi-experiments. The analysis pertains to sign, size and significance of the effects, and we relax the quasi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137163
distribution. The robustness of the concomitant test statistic is assessed, and four different methods are discussed for applying …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137302
This paper documents the existence of large structural breaks in the unconditional correlations among the British pound, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, and euro exchange rates (against the US dollar) during the period 1994-2003. Using the framework of dynamic conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137141
The stability of the demand for real Ml in Indonesia is empirically examined using quarterly data between 1981 and 2002. A cointegrated VAR methodology that isolates the period of structural breaks in the data generating process of the variables, caused by the Asian crisis, is used. The results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144429
This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH … empirical application to S&P index log-returns. Several non-nested GARCH-type models are estimated and combined to predict the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838590
parsimonious and effective GARCH(1,1) model with Student-<I>t</I> innovations. The estimation procedure is fully automatic and thus …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838647
for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … the intraday volatility measure. For forecasting horizons ranging from one day to one week the most accurate out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136957