Showing 1 - 10 of 49
This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the A rated journal 'Journal of Business and Economic Statistics'.<p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016262
We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016268
We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for extracting the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and for estimating the parameters in the model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008916011
The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance is treated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for the modelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on the simultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochastic processes of the mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209436
We propose a new class of observation driven time series models referred to as Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) models. The driving mechanism of the GAS model is the scaled score of the likelihood function. This approach provides a unified and consistent framework for introducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209514
Unobserved components time series models decompose a time series into a trend, a season, a cycle, an irregular disturbance, and possibly other components. These models have been successfully applied to many economic time series. The standard assumption of a linear model, often appropriate after...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209532
Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144404
We propose a novel econometric model for estimating and forecasting cross-sections of time-varying conditional default probabilities. The model captures the systematic variation in corporate default counts across e.g. rating and industry groups by using dynamic factors from a large panel of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144415
The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of- fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislation on reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structural time series models are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144497
We explore a periodic analysis in the context of unobserved components time series models that decompose time series into components of interest such as trend and seasonal. Periodic time series models allow dynamic characteristics to depend on the period of the year, month, week or day. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144506