Showing 1 - 10 of 12
<p>A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209483
This paper develops a novel approach to modeling and forecasting realized volatility (RV) measures based on copula functions. Copula-based time series models can capture relevant characteristics of volatility such as nonlinear dynamics and long-memory type behavior in a flexible yet parsimonious...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293998
The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137234
returns with GARCH($1,1$) innovations, and predicts a relation between the ARCH and GARCH coefficients. Heterogeneity in … predicted sign of the MA coefficient and the relation between the ARCH and GARCH coefficients for exchange rate data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144520
Volatility (SV) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models which are both extended to include … outperforms the GARCH model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136957
methods. The effects of several model characteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed disturbance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137067
Carlo methods. The effects of several model characteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137117
parsimony and robustness. APS is applied within a Bayesian analysis of a GARCH-mixture model which is used for the evaluation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137171
It is generally believed that for the power of unit root tests, only the time span and not the observation frequency matters. In this paper we show that the observation frequency does matter when the high-frequency data display fat tails and volatility clustering, as is typically the case for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137272
This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH … empirical application to S&P index log-returns. Several non-nested GARCH-type models are estimated and combined to predict the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838590