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We investigate experimentally the economic effects of wage taxation to finance unemployment benefits for a closed … the dynamic interaction between the wage tax and unemployment. (ii) Employment is boosted by budget deficits but …. (iii) A sales risk for producers due to price uncertainty on output markets appears to cause a downward pressure on factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209471
We provide a set of comparable estimates for the rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment using publicly … available data for fourteen OECD economies. We then devise a method to decompose changes in unemployment into contributions … accounted for by changes in inflow and outflow rates for cases where unemployment deviates from its flow steady state, as it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009367438
In the past decades several features of U.S. unemployment dynamics have been investigated empirically. The original … focus of research was on the duration of unemployment. In later studies the cyclicality of incidence and duration …, compositional effects and duration dependence of the exit rate out of unemployment have been investigated. Unlike the partial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136894
by investments in R&D performed in the high-wage sector. Unemployment is determined by the costs and benefits of waiting … for a high-paid job. The wage structure, growth, and unemployment are shown to depend on the way effort is extracted. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504903
. This model yields a simple relationship between (i) the unemployment rate, (ii) the value of non-market time, and (iii) the … and allow for measurement error. The estimated wage dispersion for the US is consistent with an unemployment rate of 4 …-6%. We find that without search frictions, output would be between 7.5% and 18.5% higher, depending on whether or not firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838544
In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of data. NNs are enjoying increasing interest in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144453
This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144546
Because of heterogeneity across regions, economic policy measures are increasingly targeted at the regional level. As a result, the need for economic forecasts at a sub-national level is rapidly increasing. The data available to compute regional forecasts is usually based on a pseudo-panel that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137086
This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838536
There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484062