This four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition from...

Exchange rate returns are fat-tailed distributed. We provide evidence that the apparent non-normality derives from the behavior of macroeconomic fundamentals. Economic and probabilistic arguments are offered for such a relationship. Empirical support is given by testing against normality and...

We argue that the failure to disentangle the evolution of the Canadian currency from the U.S. currency leads to potentially incorrect conclusions regarding the case of Dutch disease in Canada. We propose a new approach that is aimed at extracting both currency components and energy- and...

This paper focuses on ignored issues regarding the impact of trade reforms in transition economies. These economies are primarily characterized by a low quality of their products, large depreciations of their currencies, and a high degree of government intervention in economic activity. These...

Internationally operating firrns naturally face the decision whether or not to hedge the currency risk implied by foreign investments. In a recent paper, Bos, Mahieu and van Dijk (2000) evaluate the returns from optimal and alternative currency hedging strategies, for a series of 7 models, using...

We construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze the implications of typical time series patterns of daily exchange rates for currency risk management. Our approach is Bayesian where extensive use is made of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The effects of several model...

Exchange rates typically exhibit time-varying patterns in both means and variances. The histograms of such series indicate heavy tails. In this paper we construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze the implications of such time series patterns for currency risk management. Our...

This paper documents the existence of large structural breaks in the unconditional correlations among the British pound, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, and euro exchange rates (against the US dollar) during the period 1994-2003. Using the framework of dynamic conditional...

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...