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explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016264
forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137361
wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504905
We study the possibility for international diversification of catastrophe risk by the insurance sector. Adopting the argument that large insurance losses may be a `globalizing factor' for the industry, we study the dependence of geographically distant insurance markets via equity returns. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137123
This paper documents the existence of large structural breaks in the unconditional correlations among the British pound, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona, Swiss franc, and euro exchange rates (against the US dollar) during the period 1994-2003. Using the framework of dynamic conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137141
We argue that the failure to disentangle the evolution of the Canadian currency from the U.S. currency leads to potentially incorrect conclusions regarding the case of Dutch disease in Canada. We propose a new approach that is aimed at extracting both currency components and energy- and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008513224
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008513244
The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137192
This model of policy evaluation has been developed to identify factors that cause policy outcomes to diverge from the intended results. In this model the explanatory factors may be inherent to the conceptual and institutional framework to which policy makers adhere, or they may be ‘real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137325
This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of periodic … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137026