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considered for the modelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on the simultaneous estimation of parameters … related to the stochastic processes of the mean part and the variance part of the model. The estimation method is based on … carried out to investigate the small-sample properties of the estimation procedure. We present two illustrations which are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209436
volatility processes. This is called a GSSF-SV model. We show that conventional MCMC algorithms for this type of model are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144469
Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning counter- measures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers on a daily basis and the risk of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137355
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the … conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the … conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic volatility process. We develop a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method to obtain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209535
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013503197
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … models. While variants of the GARCH model are applied in scores of articles, use of the stochastic volatility model is less …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008867496
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … unobserved stochastic volatility, and the varying approaches that have been taken for such estimation. In order to simplify the … comprehension of these estimation methods, the main methods for estimating stochastic volatility are discussed, with focus on their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008867506
assumption of a linear model, often appropriate after a logarithmic transformation of the data, facilitates estimation, testing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209532
We propose a novel econometric model for estimating and forecasting cross-sections of time-varying conditional default probabilities. The model captures the systematic variation in corporate default counts across e.g. rating and industry groups by using dynamic factors from a large panel of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144415
We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144435