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This article presents a bifurcation theory of smooth stochastic dynamical systems that are governed by everywhere positive transition densities. The local dependence structure of the unique strictly stationary evolution of such a system can be expressed by the ratio of joint and marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005136879
model specifications for the parameters are therefore not required. Parameter estimation is carried out in the frequency …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137378
We investigate changes in the time series characteristics of postwar U.S. inflation. In a model-based analysis the … conditional mean of inflation is specified by a long memory autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average process and the … efficient estimates of the parameters using a monthly dataset of core inflation for which we consider different subsamples of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209535
We develop a new simultaneous time series model for volatility and dependence with long memory (fractionally integrated) dynamics and heavy-tailed densities. Our new multivariate model accounts for typical empirical features in financial time series while being robust to outliers or jumps in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386532
distribution specifications or historical and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although these approaches to overall VaR estimation …, component VaR and incremental VaR readily follow. The proposed estimation approach pairs intuitive appeal with computational … efficiency. We evaluate various alternative estimation methods in an application example and conclude that the proposed approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144576
considered for the modelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on the simultaneous estimation of parameters … related to the stochastic processes of the mean part and the variance part of the model. The estimation method is based on … carried out to investigate the small-sample properties of the estimation procedure. We present two illustrations which are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209436
crisis is empirically examined. The standard model for the monetary analysis of inflation, i.e. the P-Star model by Hallman … long run dynamics of CPI inflation in Indonesia remarkably weIl. Hence, there is an empirical support for the assertion …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144495
, notwithstanding that inflation in some countries tends to converge towards the euro area level. Overa11, inflation persistence has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504932
This paper investigates the international spillovers of government debt and the associated risk of inflation within a … inflation at the cost of the funded country. In response to these conflicting interests about inflation, inflation risk may rise … with the level of debt in the PAYG country. Higher inflation risk harms both countries. Actually, in contrast to the debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838553
equilibrium in mixed strategies always exists. We then examine the nonparametric identification and estimation of the costs of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209478