This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countries is empirically identified using multivariate time series models that are based on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties. We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over time and model this...

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in the Euro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. We introduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varying association patterns in...

This paper considers a simple Continuous Beliefs System (CBS) to investigate the effects on price dynamics of several behavioral assumptions: (i) herd behaviour; (ii) a-synchronous updating of beliefs; and (iii) heterogeneity in time horizons (memory) among agents. The recently introduced...

We evaluate the impact of technology adoption subsidies on in- vestment behavior in an individual choice experiment. In a laboratory setting professional managers are confronted with an intertemporal decision problem in which they have to decide whether or not to search for, and possibly adopt,...

This paper studies patenting decisions by firms in relation to the negotiation and signing of the Helsinki and Oslo protocol as part of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. We use a uniquely constructed patent data set on SO2 abatement technologies filed in 15 signatory and...

This paper addresses the issue of the choice of the optimal instrument to sell new shares, this choice being price versus quantity discrimination (rationing). Previous results in the literature (Benveniste and Wilhelm, 1990) show that the issuing firm would be better off if allowed to use both...

Most empirical studies assume only monotonic preferences for households. Behavioral research however provides substantial evidence that preferences for wealth are measured relative to a reference point. In this paper we introduce and solve a two-period consumption and savings model for a...