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good on the present set of measures as the stochastic volatility models, with or without dynamic correlation. …The focus of this article is using dynamic correlation models for the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios …. Modelling the correlation explicitly is shown to produce the best hedges when applied to the simulated data. For financial time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450720
We develop a new simultaneous time series model for volatility and dependence with long memory (fractionally integrated … volatility and dependence measures. The forecast accuracy is overall higher compared to those from some well-known competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386532
The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance is treated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for the modelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on the simultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochastic processes of the mean...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209436
We propose a new class of observation driven time series models referred to as Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) models. The driving mechanism of the GAS model is the scaled score of the likelihood function. This approach provides a unified and consistent framework for introducing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209514
conditional variance is modelled by a stochastic volatility process. We develop a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method to obtain … variance, in the order of integration, in the short memory characteristics and in the volatility of volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005209535
This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the A rated journal 'Journal of Business and Economic Statistics'.<p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016262
This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016264
We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016268
We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144392
We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144435