Baker (2002) has demonstrated theoretically that the quality of performance measures used in compensation contracts hinges on two characteristics: noise and distortion. These criteria, though, will only be useful in practice as long as the noise and distortion of a performance measure can be...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

The focus of this article is using dynamic correlation models for the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios between pairs of assets. Finding an optimal hedge requires not only knowledge of the variability of both assets, but also of the co-movement between the two assets. For this...

This paper uses the market-standard Gaussian copula model to show that fair spreads on CDO tranches are much higher than fair spreads on similarly-rated corporate bonds. It implies that credit ratings are not sufficient for pricing, which is surprising given their central role in structured...

In recent years there has been a growing interest in the impact of inequality on economic growth. Both theoretical and empirical approaches have produced ambiguous results on sign and size of this relationship. Although there is a considerable part of the literature that considers inequality...

Important choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation methods are studied for the case of highly non-elliptical posterior distributions. We focus on the situation where one makes use of importance sampling or the independence chain...

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...

We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier candidates are the observations with the largest standardized residual. First, a likelihood-ratio based test determines the presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

The topic of convergence is at the heart of a wide-ranging debate in the growth literature. Empirical studies of convergence differ widely in their theoretical backgrounds, empirical specifications and in their treatment of cross-sectional heterogeneity. Despite these differences, a rate of...