We develop a two-sector endogenous growth model with a dual labour market resulting from the presence of an effort extraction function in one sector. Effort of workers can be influenced by pay and monitoring. This results in an endogenous non-competitive wage differential between sectors and a...

This paper puts forward kernel ridge regression as an approach for forecasting with many predictors that are related nonlinearly to the target variable. In kernel ridge regression, the observed predictor variables are mapped nonlinearly into a high-dimensional space, where estimation of the...

There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF)

Because of heterogeneity across regions, economic policy measures are increasingly targeted at the regional level. As a result, the need for economic forecasts at a sub-national level is rapidly increasing. The data available to compute regional forecasts is usually based on a pseudo-panel that...

In this paper, a set of neural network (NN) models is developed to compute short-term forecasts of regional employment patterns in Germany. NNs are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of data. NNs are enjoying increasing interest in...

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...

Division of labor models have become a standard analytical tool, along with competitive general equilibrium models (Ricardian, HOS, Ricardo-Viner), in public finance, trade, growth, development, and macroeconomics. Yet unlike the earlier models, specialization models lack a canonical...

We analyze the impact of obsolescence of economic inventions by incorporating maintenance costs in the endogenous growth model of expanding product varieties. This contrasts with the existing literature, which ignores maintenance costs and uses the model of quality improvements to describe...

This note describes methods for solving deterministic and stochastic versions of the discrete-time Ramsey model of economic growth. We derive an iterative procedure for solving the Euler equation and apply it to an example adapted from Pan (2007).

The nature of energy and material resources in an endogenous growth theory framework is clarified. This involves three modifications of the conventional theory. Firstly, multiple feedback mechanisms or “growth engines” are identified. Secondly, a production function distinguishes between...