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This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016264
stochastic volatility. Estimation of the model delivers measures of daily variation outperforming their non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450762
suggested by new growth theory, while addressing the variable selection problem by means of Bayesian model averaging …. Controlling for variable selection uncertainty, we confirm the evidence in favor of new growth theory presented in several earlier …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838591
Panel Data model. We discuss issues involved when drawing Bayesian inference on regression parameters and variance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504906
Socio-economic interrelationships among regions can be measured in terms of economic flows, migration, or physical geographically-based measures, such as distance or length of shared areal unit boundaries. In general, proximity and openness tend to favour a similar economic performance among...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144396
distribution specifications or historical and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although these approaches to overall VaR estimation …, component VaR and incremental VaR readily follow. The proposed estimation approach pairs intuitive appeal with computational … efficiency. We evaluate various alternative estimation methods in an application example and conclude that the proposed approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144576
importance of a robust and flexible estimation strategy is demonstrated where the complete posterior distribution is explored. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016276
in a Bayesian framework. This consists of a new adaptive importance sampling method for Quantile Estimation via Rapid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144532
Experts can rely on statistical model forecasts when creating their own forecasts. Usually it is not known what experts actually do. In this paper we focus on three questions, which we try to answer given the availability of expert forecasts and model forecasts. First, is the expert forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321847
suggested by the ‘financial accelerator’ theory. Multivariate Markov-switching models that allow for phase shifts between the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369369