Showing 1 - 10 of 79
Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004964452
A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137142
An intensive and still growing body of research focuses on estimating a portfolio’s Value-at-Risk. Depending on both the degree of non-linearity of the instruments comprised in the portfolio and the willingness to make restrictive assumptions on the underlying statistical distributions, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144576
We solve for the optimal portfolio allocation in a setting where both conditional correlation and the
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838602
Contemporary financial stochastic programs typically involve a trade-off between return and (downside)-risk. Using stochastic programming we characterize analytically (rather than numerically) the optimal decisions that follow from characteristic single-stage and multi-stage versions of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005450807
Recent research reveals that hedge fund returns exhibit a range of different, possibly non-linear pay-off patterns. It is difficult to qualify all these patterns simultaneously as being rational in a traditional framework for optimal financial decision making. In this paper we present a simple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144566
Total Factor Productivity (TFP)is often used on the macro-economic level as an indicator of changes in efficiency of a country. In many transition economies TFP is seen to have been negative the last decade of the plan economy and starts increasing and become positive after a (quite a) few years...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137124
This paper deals with a system where batch arrivals wait in a station until a server (a train) is available, at which moment it services all customers in waiting. This is an example of a bulk server, which has many applications in public transportation, telecommunications, computer resource...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144454
There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008484062
Because of heterogeneity across regions, economic policy measures are increasingly targeted at the regional level. As a result, the need for economic forecasts at a sub-national level is rapidly increasing. The data available to compute regional forecasts is usually based on a pseudo-panel that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137086