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We develop a new likelihood-based approach to sign trades in the absence of quotes. It is equally efficient as existing MCMC methods, but more than 10 times faster. It can deal with the occurrence of multiple trades at the same time, and noisily observed trade times. We apply this method to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005016273
-driven models. We consider dynamic count, intensity, duration, volatility and copula models, including new specifications that have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009653053
This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008513245
Although the main interest in the modelling of electricity prices is often on volatility aspects, we argue that … towards volatility features of the time series. For the older electricity market of Nord Pool in Norway, it is found that a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137027
Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144404
We introduce a new efficient importance sampler for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. By combining existing numerical and Monte Carlo integration methods, we obtain a general and efficient likelihood evaluation method for this class of models. Our approach is based on the idea that only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008873337
We develop a new simultaneous time series model for volatility and dependence with long memory (fractionally integrated … volatility and dependence measures. The forecast accuracy is overall higher compared to those from some well-known competing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009386532
This paper develops a novel approach to modeling and forecasting realized volatility (RV) measures based on copula … functions. Copula-based time series models can capture relevant characteristics of volatility such as nonlinear dynamics and … long-memory type behavior in a flexible yet parsimonious way. In an empirical application to daily volatility for S&P500 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293998
variance, at least due to Jensen's inequality. We incorporate filtering methods for the estimation of the latent log volatility … volatility model contains non-Gaussian return innovations and leverage effects. The empirical results reveal that measurement …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009322509
predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression … superior market timing ability and volatility timing ability, while a mean-variance investor would be willing to pay an annual …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008740266