Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André - Tinbergen Instituut - 2003
311-323.<P> Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains …-movements arise between default rates, but not real GDP. There is, however, a contemporaneous correlation between real GDP and default … rates. Regarding the longer term evolution of the series, credit spreads influence default rates and real GDP, but not vice …