The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control</I>, 34(9), 1596-1609.<P> We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information...</p></i>

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control' (forthcoming).<P> This paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of copula-based multivariate density forecasts, focusing on a specific part of the joint distribution....</p>

This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'Journal of Econometrics', 2011, 163, 215-230.<P> We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the...</p>

This papers offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while in practice...

Patton and Timmermann (2012, 'Forecast Rationality Tests Based on Multi-Horizon Bounds', <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I>, 30(1) 1-17) propose a set of useful tests for forecast rationality or optimality under squared error loss, including an easily implemented test based on a...</i>

This discussion paper resulted in an article in <I>Economics Letters</I> (2012). Vol. 116(3), 322-325.<p> Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is...</p></i>

We present a simple new methodology to allow for time variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. We update parameters using the score of the forecasting distribution rather than squared lagged observations. This allows the parameter...