default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a cyclical component, related to the business cycle. We infer this … cycle by a new model that distinguishes loans with large and small losses, and links them to the default rate and macro …

A banking union limits international bank default contagion, eliminating inefficient liquidations. For particularly low … moderate moral hazard, as the banking union encourages risk taking by systemic institutions. If banks hold opaque assets, the … net welfare effect of a banking union can be negative. Restricting the banking union mandate restores incentives …

covariates enhance the prediction of transition probabilities from high to low default regimes. To estimate the model, we extend … and extension. Using empirical U.S. default data, we find that GDP growth, the term structure of interest rates and stock …

evidence is found of cyclical behavior in default rates. The cycle has a period of around 10 years. We also detect longer term … movements in default probabilities and default correlations. Our findings have important implications for portfolio credit risk … the dynamic and cyclical behaviour of default probabilities. Second, estimating default correlations over long horizons …