We propose a general framework for studying the evolution ofheterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic feedback setting. Beliefsdistributions are defined on a continuous space representingthe possible strategies agents can choose from. Agents base theirchoices on past performances. As new information...

We propose a new framework for studying the evolution of heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic feedback setting. Beliefs distributions are defined on a beliefs space representing a continuum of possible strategies agents can choose from. Agents base their choices on past performances, re-evaluating...

Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...

The rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorising. This review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects and analyses the implications for the rational expectations hypothesis. The experiments show that...

See the publication in the <I>Journal of Risk and Financial Management</I> (2012). Volume 5(1), pages 78-114.<P> The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test,...</p></i>