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Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization
Bakanova, Marina; Souza, Lúcio Vinhas de - Tinbergen Instituut - 2002
This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256548
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Empirical Relevance of the Hillman Condition and Comparative Advantage
Hinloopen, Jeroen; Marrewijk, Charles van - Tinbergen Instituut - 2004
We analyze the empirical violation of the Hillman condition, a necessary and sufficient condition for the correspondence between comparative advantage and pre-trade relative prices. Our comprehensive data set allows us to investigate the Hillman condition for virtually all countries of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257587
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Regulated Efficiency, World Trade Organization Accession, and the Motor Vehicle Sector in China
Francois, Joseph F.; Spinanger, Dean - Tinbergen Instituut - 2004
This paper is concerned with the interaction of regulated efficiency and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and its impact on China’s motor vehicle sector. The analysis is conducted using a 23 sector–25 region computable general equilibrium model. Regulatory reform and internal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255892
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Assessing the Impact of Trade Policy on Labor Markets and Production
Francois, Joseph - Tinbergen Instituut - 2004
This paper discusses the measurement of production and employment effects of trade policy, and more broadly the effects of economic integration and globalization. First, it provides a broad-brush overview of the ex-post literature linking trade to performance, such as measures of worker...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257164
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The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns
Groot, Henri L.F. de; Linders, Gert-Jan; Rietveld, Piet; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2003
This paper studies the effect of institutions on trade flows, using a gravity modelapproach. We start from a standard … gravity equation that incorporates geographical proximity,language, trade policy and common history. These factors reflect the … extends the gravity equation to include proxies forinstitutional quality and institutional homogeneity between trade partners …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256120
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Counting with Combined Splitting and Capture-Recapture Methods
Dupuis, Paul; Kaynar, Bahar; Ridder, Ad; Rubinstein, Reuven - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <Stochastic Models</I> (2012). Volume 28(3), pages 478-502.<P> We apply the splitting method to three well-known counting problems, namely 3-SAT, random graphs with prescribed degrees, and binary contingency tables. We present an enhanced version of the splitting method...</p></stochastic>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255459
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Censored Posterior and Predictive Likelihood in Left-Tail Prediction for Accurate Value at Risk Estimation
Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Hooning, Koen; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013
Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255481
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Efficient Bayesian Estimation and Combination of GARCH-Type Models
Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart F. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2010
This discussion paper resulted in a chapter in: (K. Bocker (Ed.)) 'Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting - Volume II: Examples and Applications from Finance', 2010, London: Riskbooks.<P> This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255484
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Numerically Accelerated Importance Sampling for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, Andre; Scharth, Marcel - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011
Publication in the 'Journal of Business & Economic Statistics' forthcoming.<A> We introduce a new efficient importance sampler for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models. We propose a general and efficient likelihood evaluation method for this class of models via the combination of numerical and...</a>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255569
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On Importance Sampling for State Space Models
Jungbacker, Borus; Koopman, Siem Jan - Tinbergen Instituut - 2005
We consider likelihood inference and state estimation by means of importance sampling for state space models with a nonlinear non-Gaussian observation y ~ p(y|alpha) and a linear Gaussian state alpha ~ p(alpha). The importance density is chosen to be the Laplace approximation of the smoothing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255603