We investigate actual capital chosen by banks in presence of capital minimum requirements and ex-post penalties for violating them. The model yields excess capital that is always positive and increases during times of distress in the economy, which is in line with empirical evidence. Next, we...

This discussion paper led to an article in <I>Growth and Change</I> (2014). Volume 45, issue 2, pages 240-262.<P> This paper employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. Having incorporated a possible structural break following...</p></i>

This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics</I> (2008). Vol. 70 issue 1, pages 23-51.<P> This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series...</p></i>

In this paper we investigate whether the dynamic properties of the U.S. business cycle have changed in the last fifty years. For this purpose we develop a flexible business cycle indicator that is constructed from a moderate set of macroeconomic time series. The coincident economic indicator is...

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...

This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>Journal of Applied Econometrics</A>. Vol. 19, issue 5, pages 611-636.<P> Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countriesis empirically identified using multivariate time series models that arebased on unobserved components with...</p></i>

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This paper develops a general-equilibrium model of skill-biased technological change that approximates the observed shifts in the shares of wage and non-wage income going to the top decile of U.S. households since 1980. Under realistic assumptions, we find that all agents can benefit from the...

We develop a novel high-dimensional non-Gaussian modeling framework to infer conditional and joint risk measures for many financial sector firms. The model is based on a dynamic Generalized Hyperbolic Skewed-t block-equicorrelation copula with time-varying volatility and dependence parameters...

This discussion paper led to an article in the <I>Journal of Business and Economic Statistics</I> (2008). Vol. 26, issue 4, pages 510-525.<p> We model 1981–2002 annual US default frequencies for a panel of firms in different rating and age classes. The data is decomposed into a systematic and...</p></i>