This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO), develops the relationship between the strength of ENSO and greenhouse gas emissions, which increase as the economy grows, with carbon dioxide being the major greenhouse gas, and...

In this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model. The...

This paper has two primary purposes. First, we fit the annual maximum daily rainfall data for 6 rainfall stations, both with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions for the periods 1911-2010 and 1960-2010 in Taiwan, and detect the changes between the two...

See the publication in the <I>Journal of Risk and Financial Management</I> (2012). Volume 5(1), pages 78-114.<P> The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test,...</p></i>

Since Black (1976), the source of the stock price volatility smirk has remained a controversy. The volatility smirk is a side effect of agency conflict. An important distinction is that the smirk occurs in the optimum, even after agency conflict has been resolved. The slope of the smirk is found...

This paper features an analysis of the effectiveness of a range of portfolio diversication strategies as applied to a set of 17 years of monthly hedge fund index returns on a set of ten market indices representing 13 major hedge fund categories, as compiled by the EDHEC Risk Institute. The...

This paper features the application of a novel and recently developed method of statistical and mathematical analysis to the assessment of financial risk: namely Regular Vine copulas. Dependence modeling using copulas is a popular tool in financial applications, but is usually applied to pairs...

This paper features an analysis of the relationship between the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index and a sentiment news series using daily data obtained from the Thomson Reuters News Analytics (TRNA) provided by SIRCA (The Securities Industry Research Centre of the Asia...

In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...

This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators...