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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior

Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013

The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and … effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy … heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257145

The Effects of Learning in Interactive Monetary Policy Committees

Berk, Jan Marc; Bierut, Beata K. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2004

We develop a theoretical framework for studying the effects of interaction on the quaJity of decision-making by monetary policy committees. We show that interaction, i.e. increasing one's expertise through an exchange of views, is most likely not to result in interdependent voting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256224

New Economy, Old Central Banks?

Berk, Jan Marc - Tinbergen Instituut - 2002

Proponents of the so-called New Economy claim that it entails a structural change of the economy. Such a change, in turn, would require the central bank to rethink its monetary policy to the extent that traditional relationships between inf1ation and economic growth are no longer valid. But such...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256306

Modeling Monetary Policy

Reynard, Samuel; Schabert, Andreas - Tinbergen Instituut - 2009

We develop a macroeconomic framework where money issupplied against only few eligible securities in open marketoperations. The relationship between the policy rate,expected inflation and consumption growth is affected bymoney market conditions, i.e. the varying liquidity value ofeligible assets...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256586

Committee Structure and its Implications for Monetary Policy Decision-making

Berk, Jan Marc; Bierut, Beata K. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2003

We investigate the implications for the setting of interest rateswhen monetary policy decisions are taken by a committee, in whicha subset of members may meet prior to the voting in the committeeand therefore has the possibility to reach consensus ex ante to voteunanimously ex post. We allow for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257062

Optimal Balanced Control for Call Centers

Bhulai, Sandjai; Farenhorst-Yuan, Taoying; Heidergott, Bernd - Tinbergen Instituut - 2010

In this paper we study a challenging call center operation problem. The goal of our analysis is to identify an optimal policy for allocating tasks to agents. As a first step, we discuss promising randomized policies and use stochastic approximation for finding the optimal randomized policy when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255616

Research among Copycats: R&D, Spillovers, and Feedback Strategies

Smrkolj, Grega; Wagener, Florian - Tinbergen Instituut - 2014

We study a stochastic dynamic game of process innovation in which firms can initiate and terminate R&D efforts and production at different times. We discern the impact of knowledge spillovers on the investments in existing markets, as well as on the likely structure of newly forming markets, for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265234

Investment under Risk with Discrete and Continuous Assets

Elbers, Chris; Gunning, Jan Willem; Vigh, Melinda - Tinbergen Instituut - 2009

This paper considers a general class of stochastic dynamic choice models with discrete and continuous decision variables. This class contains a variety of models that are useful for modeling intertemporal household decisions under risk. Our examples are drawn from the field of development...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256814

Semiparametric Cross Entropy for Rare-Event Simulation

Botev, Zdravko; Ridder, Ad; Rojas-Nandayapa, Leonardo - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013

The Cross Entropy method is a well-known adaptive importance sampling method for rare-event probability estimation, which requires estimating an optimal importance sampling density within a parametric class. In this article we estimate an optimal importance sampling density within a wider...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256828

Sequential Monte Carlo for Counting Vertex Covers in General Graphs

Vaisman, Radislav; Botev, Zdravko; Ridder, Ad - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013

In this paper we describe a Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) procedure for counting the number of vertex covers in general graphs. The performance of SIS depends heavily on how close the SIS proposal distribution is to a uniform one over a suitably restricted set. The proposed algorithm...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257010

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