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underwriters and issuing firms in the Japanese corporate bond market, stochastic life table forecasting: a time-simultaneous fan …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256964
under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian approach to forecasting value-at-risk of VIX futures, fast clustering of GARCH processes … dynamics of BRICS's country risk ratings and domestic stock markets, U.S. stock market and oil price, forecasting value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256696
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256800
wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257096
The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the … forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257254
construction methods, we find that this procedure leads to better interpretable factors and to a favorable forecasting performance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257444
The daily average price of electricity represents the price of electricity to be delivered over the full next day and serves as a key reference price in the electricity market. It is an aggregate that equals the average of hourly prices for delivery during each of the 24 individual hours. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257447
short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and … specification is most effective in its forecasting performance. Furthermore, the forecast performances of the different … extended empirical out-of-sample forecasting competition for quarterly growth of gross domestic product in the euro area and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257503
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257521
, pages 683-713.<P> This paper discusses identification, specification, estimation and forecasting for a general class of … formulations are introduced for exact maximum likelihood estimation, component estimation and forecasting. Identification issues …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256849