replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast … are progressive, where the interaction between model and intuition is explicitly taken into account. The data set for the … that progress can be explained predominantly by improved intuition. …

that numerical forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and random expert intuition. We show that the … intuition, and the current and lagged correlations between intuition and news (or shocks to the numerical forecasts). It follows …