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Beugelsdijk, Sjoerd; Groot, Henri L.F. de; Schaik, … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2002

paper, Knack and Keefer (1997) assess the effect of trust on growth. This paper analyses the robustness of their results … the relationship between trust and growth in terms of both the size and the significance of the estimated effect, is … highly dependent on the set of conditioning variables. An answer to the question whether there is an economic payoff of trust …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256981

From Tradition to Modernity: Economic Growth in a Small World

Lindner, Ines; Strulik, Holger - Tinbergen Instituut - 2012

Accepted for publication in the Journal of Development Economics. This paper introduces the Small World model (Watts and Strogatz, Nature, 1998) into the theory of economic growth and investigates how increasing economic integration affects firm size and efficiency, norm enforcement, and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255851

The Economics of Co-ethnic Employment; Incentives, Welfare Effects and Policy Options

Butter, Frank A.G. den; Masurel, Enno; Mosch, Robert - Tinbergen Instituut - 2004

networks and related high intra-group trust constitute the major reasons for co-ethnic employment by lowering information and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256476

Trade, Trust and Transaction Cost

Butter, Frank A.G. den; Mosch, Robert H.J. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2003

suggest. Trust between trading partners lowers transaction costs and may therefore enhance trade. The empirical analysis of … this paper shows that more trust leads to more trade so that part of the "mystery of missing trade" can be attributed to … the lack of trust between trading partners, e.g. because of cultural differences and habits, or because of insufficient …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256716

The Relation between Economic Development and Business Ownership revisited

Carree, Martin; Stel, André van; Thurik, Roy; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2007

This paper revisits the two-equation model of Carree, van Stel, Thurik and Wennekers (2002) where deviations from the ‘equilibrium’ rate of business ownership play a central role determining both the growth of business ownership and that of economic development. Two extensions of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256128

The Great Divergence: A Network Approach

Lindner, Ines; Strulik, Holger - Tinbergen Instituut - 2014

We present a multi-country theory of economic growth in which countries are connected by a network of mutual knowledge exchange. Growth is generated through human capital accumulation and knowledge externalities. The available knowledge in any country depends on its connections to the rest of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256592

Censored Posterior and Predictive Likelihood in Left-Tail Prediction for Accurate Value at Risk Estimation

Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Hooning, Koen; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013

Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255481

Efficient Bayesian Estimation and Combination of GARCH-Type Models

Ardia, David; Hoogerheide, Lennart F. - Tinbergen Instituut - 2010

This discussion paper resulted in a chapter in: (K. Bocker (Ed.)) 'Rethinking Risk Measurement and Reporting - Volume II: Examples and Applications from Finance', 2010, London: Riskbooks. This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255484

Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions

Billio, Monica; Casarin, Roberto; Ravazzolo, Francesco; … - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256621

Forecast Accuracy and Economic Gains from Bayesian Model Averaging using Time Varying Weights

Hoogerheide, Lennart; Kleijn, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco - Tinbergen Instituut - 2009

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256933