Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André - Tinbergen Instituut - 2003
311-323.<P> Various economic theories are available to explain the existence of credit and default cycles. There remains …-up that they do, or at least that defaults and credit spreads tend to co-move with macro-economic variables. If true, this is … important for credit risk management as well as for regulation and systemic risk management. In this paper, we use 1927-1997 U …