Showing 1 - 10 of 145
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly explain heterogeneity in economic behaviour by education...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011275101
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <I>Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control</I>. Volume 33(11), pp. 1912-1928.<P> This paper formalizes the idea that more hedging instruments may destabilize markets when traders are heterogeneous and adapt their behavior according to experience based...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255525
stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules, on agents' sensitivity to … differences in forecasting performance and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal interest rate in response … is part of the ecology of forecasting strategies. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255558
We asked participants of a large-scale, real-life peak avoidance experiment to provide estimates of their average in-vehicle travel time for their morning commute. Comparing these reported travel times to the corresponding actual travel times, we find that travel times are overstated by a factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255638
an optimal, but misspecied, AR(1) rule to forecast inflation consistent with observed sample mean and first …-reverting fundamental rule and a trend-following rule, based upon their past performance. The third example concerns learning-to-forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255795
trend-following rule, based upon their relative performance. We also discuss learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255872
Can vanity do any good? It may seem obvious to answer this question in the negative, as economists have shown how reputational concerns lead agents e.g. to ignore valuable information, to herd, and to become overly risk averse. We explore how proud agents may be a social blessing. An agent may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255970
Strong consistency of least squares estimators of the slope parameter in simple linear regression models is established for predetermined stochastic regressors. The main result covers a class of models which falls outside the applicability of what is presently available in the literature. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256174
The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256308
In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256878