Showing 1 - 10 of 159
from individual expectations. Subjects have no information about underlying market equilibrium equations, but can learn by … stable treatment, rational expectations (RE) yield a good description of observed aggregate price fluctuations: prices remain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256156
whether therelated expectations and realizations match each other. We use theDutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where … expectations aboutthe next year's financial situation are reported. We show that realizedchanges exceed expectations, and that this … distribution of expectations andrealizations, suggest that individuals around retirement are overly pes-simistic and attach more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257009
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and … effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy … heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257145
We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257391
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health …, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011275101
In this paper we consider regression models with forecast feedback. Agents' expectations are formed via the recursive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256878
Strong consistency of least squares estimators of the slope parameter in simple linear regression models is established for predetermined stochastic regressors. The main result covers a class of models which falls outside the applicability of what is presently available in the literature. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256174
expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative … expectations amplify boom and bust cycles and how endogenous coordination on pessimistic expectations amplifies crises and slows … down recovery. Taking heterogeneous expectations and bounded rationality into account is crucial for the timing of monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257071
Rational expectations assumes perfect, model consistency between beliefs and market realizations. Here we discuss … behaviorally rational expectations, characterized by an observable, parsimonious and intuitive form of consistency between beliefs …-order autocorrelations. Secondly, an asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations and agents switching between a mean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255795
example, we discuss a behavioral asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations. Bubble and crash dynamics is triggered …, showing that in positive feedback systems individuals coordinate expectations on non-rational, almost self …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255872