Showing 31 - 40 of 75
For many assets, trading is fragmented across multiple exchanges. Price discovery measures summarize the informativeness of trading on each venue for discovering the asset’s true underlying value. We explore intraday variation in price discovery using a structural model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256287
This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2013). Vol. 29, pages 676-694.<P> We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256536
Many seasonal macroeconomic time series are subject to changes in their means and variances over a long time horizon. In this paper we propose a general treatment for the modelling of time-varying features in economic time series. We show that time series models with mean and variance functions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256745
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256800
We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256898
This version has replaced the version of January 30, 2012.<P> A successful construction of an importance density for nonlinear non-Gaussian state space models is crucial when Monte Carlo simulation methods are used for likelihood evaluation, signal extraction of dynamic latent factors and...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256959
This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A</I> (2008). Vol. 171, issue 1, pages 265-277.<P> Risk is at the center of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257128
This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'Journal of Applied Econometrics'</I>, 2014, 29(1), 65-90.<P> We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257133
We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257194
This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2014). Volume 30, pages 572-584.<P> We explore a new approach to the forecasting of macroeconomic variables based on a dynamic factor state space analysis. Key economic variables are modeled jointly with...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257430