We develop a new likelihood-based approach to sign trades in the absence of quotes. It is equally efficient as existing MCMC methods, but more than 10 times faster. It can deal with the occurrence of multiple trades at the same time, and noisily observed trade times. We apply this method to a...

Signed customer order flow correlates with permanent price changes in equity and nonequity markets. We exploit macro news events in the 30Y treasury futures market to identify causality from customer flow to riskfree rates. We remove the positive feedback trading part and establish that, in the...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'Journal of Banking and Finance', 2014, 38, 89-105.<P> This paper documents that speed is crucially important for high frequency trading strategies based on U.S. macroeconomic news releases. Using order level data of the highly liquid S&P500...</p>

The equity premium is a key parameter in asset allocation policies. There is a vigorous debate in the literature regarding the actual measurement of the equity premium, its size and the determinants of its variation. This study aims to take stock of this literature by means of a meta-analysis....

Most stock exchange regulators around the world reacted to the 2007-2009 crisis byimposing bans or regulatory constraints on short-selling. Short-selling restrictions wereimposed and lifted at different dates in different countries, often applied to different sets ofstocks and featured different...

We analyse daily lead-lag patterns in US equity and credit default swap (CDS) returns. We first document that equity returns robustly lead CDS returns. However, we find that the CDS-lag is due to <I>common</I> (and not firm-specific) news and arises predominantly in response to <I>positive</I> (instead of...</i></i>

We study risk and return properties of capital structure arbitrage strategies aiming to profit from temporal mispricing between equity and credit default swaps (CDSs) of companies. We find that capital structure arbitrage provides an attractive annualized return of 24.35% on invested capital....

Published in the <I>Journal of Reviews on Global Economics</I> (2013). Volume 2, pages 307-329.<P> Economists and financial analysts have begun to recognise the importance of the actions of other agents in the decision-making process. Herding is the deliberate mimicking of the decisions of other agents....</p></i>

We investigate the effects of introducing a central clearing counterparty (CCP) on securities prices by adopting as an experimental construct the 2009 CCP reform in three Nordic markets. We find that, relative to other European economies, these countries experience market-adjusted equity returns...

A number of recent theoretical studies have explored trading in fragmented markets, e.g. Biais etal. (2000), a phenomenon increasingly witnessed in modern markets. The key assumptiongenerating the results is that there is at least one liquidity demander exploiting access to allmarkets by...