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Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models
Pooter, Michiel De - Tinbergen Instituut - 2007
In this paper I examine various extensions of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model with the purpose of fitting and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in-sample fit of the term structure. However, I show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256459
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Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS
Diks, Cees; Weide, Roy van der - Tinbergen Instituut - 2003
This paper considers a simple Continuous Beliefs System (CBS) toinvestigate the effects on price dynamics of several behavioralassumptions: (i) herd behaviour; (ii) a-synchronous updating ofbeliefs; and (iii) heterogeneity in time horizons (memory) amongagents. The recently introduced concept of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256802
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The Maximum Number of Parameters for the Hausman Test When the Estimators are from Different Sets of Equations
Nawata, Kazumitsu; McAleer, Michael - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013
This discussion paper led to a publication in <I>Economics Letters</I> (2014). Vol. 123(3), pages 291-294.<P> Hausman (1978) developed a widely-used model specification test that has passed the test of time. The test is based on two estimators, one being consistent under the null hypothesis but...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256925
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Predicting the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Incorporating Parameter Uncertainty, Model Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Information
Pooter, Michiel D. de; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, Dick van - Tinbergen Instituut - 2007
We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257353
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On the Invertibility of EGARCH
Martinet, Guillaume Gaetan; McAleer, Michael - Tinbergen Instituut - 2014
Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH …) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative … shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the EGARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272590
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On the Invertibility of EGARCH(p,q)
Martinet, Guillaume Gaetan; McAleer, Michael - Tinbergen Instituut - 2015
Of the two most widely estimated univariate asymmetric conditional volatility models, the exponential GARCH (or EGARCH …) specification can capture asymmetry, which refers to the different effects on conditional volatility of positive and negative … shocks to volatility. However, the statistical properties of the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) of the EGARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272596
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Economic Growth and the Volatility of Foreign Aid
Chervin, Michal; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - Tinbergen Instituut - 2010
volatility of aid on economic growth, controlling for the level of aid. A four-year panel analysis is conducted encompassing 155 … countries over the period 1966-2001. We find that once the volatility of aid is controlled for, aid has a positive impact on … economic growth. Correspondingly, volatility of aid flows is found to be negatively related to growth. We found no significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255582
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Fiscal Sustainability, Volatility and Oil Wealth: A Stochastic Analysis of Fiscal Spending Rules
Wijnbergen, Sweder van; Budina, Nina - Tinbergen Instituut - 2011
This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the <A href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2011.00425.x/abstract;jsessionid=F64011DF99B22B6E2BF33FDA1C47DE9C.f04t03">'Economics of Transition'</A>, 2011, 19(4), 639-666.<P> Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is...</p></a>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255697
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Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Carnero, M. Angeles - Tinbergen Instituut - 2005
This discussion paper resulted in an article in the <I>Journal of the American Statistical Association</I> (2007). Vol. 102, issue 477, pages 16-27.<p> Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic errors are considered for the analysis...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256266
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Stationarity and Ergodicity of Univariate Generalized Autoregressive Score Processes
Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, Andre - Tinbergen Instituut - 2012
This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>Electronic Journal of Statistics</I> (2014). Vol. 8, pages 1088-1112.<P> We characterize the dynamic properties of Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) processes by identifying regions of the parameter space that imply stationarity and ergodicity. We...</p></i>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256295