An intensive and still growing body of research focuses on estimating a portfolio’s Value-at-Risk.Depending on both the degree of non-linearity of the instruments comprised in the portfolio and thewillingness to make restrictive assumptions on the underlying statistical distributions, a...

We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

This discussion paper has led to a publication in <A href="http://books.google.nl/books?id=_YdZrLu5MKEC&dq=allesintitel:+%22The+Refinement+of+Econometric+Estimation+and+Test+Procedures%22&lr=&source=gbs_navlinks_s"><B>The Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures</B></A>.<P>An attempt is made to set rules for a fair and fruitful competition between alternative inference methods based on their performance in simulation experiments. This leads to a list of...</p></b></a>

In simple static linear simultaneous equation models the empirical distributions of IV and OLS are examined under alternative sampling schemes and compared with their first-order asymptotic approximations. We demonstrate that the limiting distribution of consistent IV is not affected by...

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...

Parameter estimates of structural economic models are often difficult to interpret at the light of the underlying economic theory. Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular as a tool for conducting inference on structural models since priors offer a way to exert control over the...

This discussion paper led to a publication in <A href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947306003446">'Computational Statistics & Data Analysis'</A> 51(7) 3296-318.<p>In practice structural equations are often estimated by least-squares, thus neglecting any simultaneity. This paper reveals why this may often be justifiable and when. Assuming data...</p></a>

This discussion paper was published in the <I> Economics of Education Review</I> (2012). Vol. 31(5), 515-523.<P> The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data of the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and...</p></i>

This study aims to identify the critical factor(s) that determine the embeddedness level (EL) of rural entrepreneurs. In order to achieve this aim, existing applied studies on the embeddedness of entrepreneurs undertaken in different rural areas were systematically collected to create a database...

In this paper we derive a market value for Guaranteed Annuity Optionusing martingale modeling techniques. Furthermore, we show how to construct a static replicating portfolio of vanillainterest rate swaptions that replicates the Guaranteed Annuity Option. Finally, we illustrate with historical...