Accurate prediction of risk measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) requires precise estimation of the tail of the predictive distribution. Two novel concepts are introduced that offer a specific focus on this part of the predictive density: the censored posterior, a...

This discussion paper resulted in an article in <I>Economics Letters</I> (2012). Vol. 116(3), 322-325.<p> Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is...</p></i>

Several Bayesian model combination schemes, including some novel approaches that simultaneously allow for parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and robust time varying model weights, are compared in terms of forecast accuracy and economic gains using financial and macroeconomic time series....

We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for...

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...

The paper proposes a model for the dynamics of stock prices that incorporates increased asset co-movements during extreme market downturns in a continuous-time setting. The model is based on the construction of a multivariate diffusion with a pre-specified stationary density with tail...

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in 'Discrete Optimization', 2007, 4, 315-321.<P> In this paper an algorithm is proposed to find an integral solution of (nonlinear) complementarity problems. The algorithm starts with a nonnegative integral point and generates a unique sequence of...</p>

This discussion paper led to a publication in <A href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221711004498">'European Journal of Operational Research'</A>, 214(3), 493-500.<P>We study the existence problem of a zero point of a function defined on a finite set of elements of the integer lattice of the n-dimensional Euclidean space. It is assumed that the set is...</p></a>

This discussion paper resulted in a publication in the 'SIAM Journal on Optimization', 2007, 18, 290-308. <P> In this paper we present two general results on the existence of a discrete zero point of a function from the n-dimensional integer lattice Zn to the n-dimensional Euclidean space Rn. Under...</p>